Predicting Apophis' Earth Encounters in 2029 and 2036

Predicting Apophis' Earth Encounters in 2029 and 2036

SUMMARY

Researchers at NASA/JPL, Caltech, and Arecibo Observatory have released the results of radar observations of the potentially hazardous asteroid 99942 Apophis, along with an in-depth analysis of its motion. The research will affect how and when scientists measure, predict, or consider modifying the asteroid's motion. The paper has been accepted for publication in the science journal "Icarus" and was presented at the AAS/DPS conference in Orlando, Florida in October of 2007. The Apophis study was led by Jon Giorgini, a senior analyst in JPL's Solar System Dynamics group and member of the radar team that observed Apophis.

The analysis of Apophis previews situations likely to be encountered with NEAs yet to be discovered: a close approach that is not dangerous (like Apophis in 2029) nonetheless close enough to obscure the proximity and the danger of a later approach (like Apophis in 2036) by amplifying trajectory prediction uncertainties caused by difficult-to-observe physical characteristics interacting with solar radiation as well as other factors.

BACKGROUND

Upon its discovery in 2004, Apophis was briefly estimated to have a 2.7% chance of impacting the Earth in 2029. Additional measurements later showed there was no impact risk at that time from the 210-330 meter (690-1080 foot) diameter object, identified spectroscopically as an Sq type similar to LL chondritic meteorites. However, there will be a historically close approach to the Earth, estimated to be a 1 in 800 year event (on average, for an object of that size).

Arecibo Radar Image of Apophis

Apophis Position Uncertainty

The Arecibo planetary radar telescope subsequently detected the asteroid at distances of 27-40 million km (17-25 million miles; 0.192-0.268 AU) in 2005 and 2006. Polarization ratios indicate Apophis appears to be smoother than most NEAs at 13-cm scales. Including the high precision radar measurements in a new orbit solution reduced the uncertainty in Apophis' predicted location in 2029 by 98%.

While trajectory knowledge was substantially corrected by the Arecibo data, a small estimated chance of impact (less than 1 in 45,000 using standard dynamical models) remained for April 13, 2036. With Apophis probably too close to the Sun to be measured by optical telescopes until 2011, and too distant for useful radar measurement until 2013, the underlying physics of Apophis' motion were considered to better understand the hazard. 

RESULTS OF THE STUDY 

(1) Extending the "Standard Dynamical Model"

Trajectory predictions for asteroids are normally based on a standard model of the solar system that includes the gravity of the Sun, Moon, other planets, and the three largest asteroids.

However, additional factors can influence the predicted motion in ways that depend on rarely known details, such as the spin of the asteroid, its mass, the way it reflects and absorbs sun-light, radiates heat, and the gravitational pull of other asteroids passing nearby. These were examined, along with the effect of Earth's non-uniform gravity field during encounters, and limitations of the computer hardware performing the calculations.

One would normally look for the influence of such factors as they gradually alter the trajectory over years. But, for Apophis, the changes remain small until amplified by passage through Earth's gravity field during the historically close approach in 2029.

For example, the team found solar energy can cause between 20 and 740 km (12 and 460 miles) of position change over the next 22 years leading into the 2029 Earth encounter. But, only 7 years later, the effect on Apophis' predicted position can grow to between 520,000 and 30 million km (323,000 and 18.6 million miles; 0.0035-0.2 AU). This range makes it difficult to predict if Apophis will even have a close encounter with Earth in 2036 when the orbital paths intersect.

Present era through 2029 Small factors 2029-2036

It was found that small uncertainties in the masses and positions of the planets and Sun can cause up to 23 Earth radii of prediction error for Apophis by 2036.

The standard model of the Earth as a point mass can introduce up to 2.9 Earth radii of prediction error by 2036; at least the Earth's oblateness must be considered to predict an impact.

The gravity of other asteroids can cause up to 2.3 Earth radii of prediction uncertainty for Apophis.

By considering the range of Apophis' physical characteristics and these error sources, it was determined what observations prior to 2029 will most effectively reduce prediction uncertainties. Observing criteria were developed that, if satisfied, could permit eliminating the 2036 impact possibility without further physical characterization of Apophis.

Such observations could reduce the need for a visit by an expensive spacecraft and reduce the risk of Apophis being prematurely eliminated as a hazard under the standard model, only to drift back into the hazard classification system years later as the smaller, unmodeled forces act upon it.

(2) Mitigation

Mitigation was not specifically studied, but the team found small variations in the energy absorption and reflection properties of Apophis' surface are sufficient to cause enough trajectory change to obscure the difference between an impact and a miss in 2036. Changing the amount of energy Apophis absorbs by half a percent as late as 2018 - for example by covering a 40 x 40 meter (130 x 130 foot) patch with lightweight reflective materials (an 8 kg payload) - can change its position in 2036 by a minimum of one Earth radius.

Apophis Trajectory Change

A change somewhat greater than this minimum would be required to allow for prediction uncertainties. For Apophis, scaling up to distribute 250 kg (550 pounds) of a reflective or absorptive material (similar to the carbon fiber mesh being considered for solar sails) across the surface could use the existing radiation forces to produce a 6-sigma trajectory change, moving at least "99.9999998" percent of the statistically possible trajectories away from the Earth in just 18 years.

While no deflection is expected to be necessary, the team's research demonstrates that any deflection method must produce a change known in advance to be greater than all the error sources in the prediction, including some greater than those considered with the standard model.

(3) Impact probability

The study did NOT compute new impact probabilities. This is because important physical parameters (such as mass and spin pole) that affect its trajectory have not yet been measured and hence there are no associated probability distributions. The study characterizes how the Standard Dynamical Model can over or under-estimate impact probability for those objects having close planetary encounters prior to the potential impact.

The situation is similar to having 6 apples (the measured Apophis parameters) and 6 boxes whose contents are unknown (the unmeasured Apophis parameters), then trying to compute the probability one has a total of 12 apples (impact probability). The result reflects back what is assumed about the unknown contents of the boxes, but doesn't reveal new information. The contents of the boxes must be observed (measured) to learn something new.

For similar reasons, the Apophis study instead uses the minimum and maximum range-of-effect in place of computing impact probabilities to provide reasonable criteria for excluding impact in the absence of detailed physical knowledge, once new position measurements are obtained at six key times.

(4) Non-Apophis Conclusions

Aspects of the study relevant to asteroids other than Apophis:

• The Standard Dynamical Model can misestimate impact risk for the more numerous sub-km objects preceded by close planetary encounter(s). This problem might be addressed by reassessing impact potential after planetary encounters, given new measurements.
• The minimum-maximum effect of unmeasured parameters can provide enough information to exclude threats in certain cases, even if a realistic impact probability cannot be computed.
• Amplification of small trajectory offsets makes valid prediction across a close-encounter difficult without physical knowledge, but offers the potential to redirect the entire uncertainty region and has significant implications for costly spacecraft missions.
• A deflection effort must be known in advance to produce change greater than predicted uncertainties due to ALL parameters, not only the Standard Dynamical Model. For example, if a method produces 10 Earth-radii of change, but prediction uncertainties from all sources are 20 Earth-radii, the deflection would move the asteroid around within the noise, producing an unpredicted result or even a new hazard.

The Apophis situation has predictability problems essentially the same as previously described in "Science" for 29075 (1950 DA), but occurring more severely: in as little as 2-3 decades, rather than the 880 year prediction of that case.

FUTURE

The future for Apophis on Friday, April 13 of 2029 includes an approach to Earth no closer than 29,470 km (18,300 miles, or 5.6 Earth radii from the center, or 4.6 Earth-radii from the surface) over the mid-Atlantic, appearing to the naked eye as a moderately bright point of light moving rapidly across the sky. Depending on its mechanical nature, it could experience shape or spin-state alteration due to tidal forces caused by Earth's gravity field.

This is within the distance of Earth's geosynchronous satellites. However, because Apophis will pass interior to the positions of these satellites at closest approach, in a plane inclined at 40 degrees to the Earth's equator and passing outside the equatorial geosynchronous zone when crossing the equatorial plane, it does not threaten the satellites in that heavily populated region.

Using criteria developed in this research, new measurements possible in 2013 (if not 2011) will likely confirm that in 2036 Apophis will quietly pass more than 49 million km (30.5 million miles; 0.32 AU) from Earth on Easter Sunday of that year (April 13).

CREDITS

In addition to Giorgini, co-authors of the report include Dr. Lance A. M. Benner and Dr. Steven J. Ostro of JPL; Dr. Michael C. Nolan, Arecibo Observatory, Puerto Rico, and Michael W. Busch of the California Institute of Technology.

Arecibo Observatory is operated by Cornell University under a cooperative agreement with the National Science Foundation. JPL is managed for NASA by the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena.

UPDATE NOTES

2009-Apr-29:
This animation illustrates how the unmeasured physical parameters of Apophis bias the entire statistical uncertainty region. If Apophis is a RETROGRADE rotator on the small, less-massive end of what is possible, the measurement uncertainty region will get pushed back such that the center of the distribution encounters the Earth's orbit. This would result in an impact probability much higher than computed with the Standard Dynamical Model. Conversely, if Apophis is a small, less-massive PROGRADE rotator, the uncertainty region is advanced along the orbit. Only the remote tails of the probability distribution could encounter the Earth, producing a negligible impact probability. Although measurements in 2010-2011 may cut the size of the measurement uncertainty region greatly and result in an "all clear" using the Standard Dynamical Model, it may not be until Arecibo radar in 2013 provides a spin direction that Earth's passage through the probability distribution center can be ruled out.

2008-Jul-10:
An equivalent way of describing the problem of computing an impact probability for Apophis is that the true 2029 "keyhole" leading to a 2036 impact -- as compared to the theoretical keyhole derived from the Standard Dynamical Model -- is not known in the absence of knowledge of the complete dynamics. The problem is acute enough for Apophis that, IF impact hasn't been previously excluded, AND there hasn't been a through physical characterization, it can't be known for certain it will impact until during or after the 2029 encounter, even if a spacecraft is accompanying Apophis and providing position measurements good to 2 meters. That is, the keyhole could be determined only retrospectively, after passage through it.

2008-Apr-16:
In response to inquiries, accidental impact with an artifical satellite in 2029 is vanishingly unlikely. As mentioned above, (1) Apophis does not pass near the zones where most satellites are located and (2) man-made satellites and Apophis both have small cross-sectional areas. Even if a high-velocity impact occurred, at most a large satellite could change Apophis' position 7 years later (in 2036) by only 100's of km. This is less than 1/10th the size of the smaller issues considered in the study, very much in the noise of the calculations, and can have no meaningful effect on Earth impact probability estimation (which already incorporates more than 30 million km of uncertainty). At such a late date, impact with an artificial satellite would be like a bug on the windshield of Apophis. Deflection efforts are dependent on being early enough to leverage the dynamics of the 2029 encounter. Events during the encounter lack such leverage.

2008-Feb-22:
Paper received JPL's 2008 Edward Stone Award for Outstanding Research Publication.

2007-Dec-13:
The paper will be published in the January 2008 issue of Icarus. Reference: Giorgini JD, Benner LAM, Ostro SJ, Nolan MC, Busch MW, Predicting the Earth encounters of (99942) Apophis, Icarus 193 (2008), pp. 1-19.

MN4 will come scarily close to Earth on April 13, 2029

Friday the 13th, 2029

Asteroid 2004 MN4 will come scarily close to Earth on April 13, 2029, but it will not hit.

Friday the 13th is supposed to be an unlucky day, the sort of day you trip on your shoe laces or lose your wallet or get bad news.

But maybe it's not so bad. Consider this: On April 13th--Friday the 13th--2029, millions of people are going to go outside, look up and marvel at their good luck. A point of light will be gliding across the sky, faster than many satellites, brighter than most stars.

What's so lucky about that? It's asteroid 2004 MN4 ... not hitting Earth.

For a while astronomers thought it might. On Christmas Eve 2004, Paul Chodas, Steve Chesley and Don Yeomans at NASA's Near Earth Object Program office calculated a 1-in-60 chance that 2004 MN4 would collide with Earth. Impact date: April 13, 2029.

Right: The orbits of Earth and asteroid 2004 MN4. [More]

The asteroid is about 320 meters wide. "That's big enough to punch through Earth's atmosphere," devastating a region the size of, say, Texas, if it hit land, or causing widespread tsunamis if it hit ocean, says Chodas. So much for holiday cheer.

Asteroid 2004 MN4 had been discovered in June 2004, lost, then discovered again six months later. With such sparse tracking data it was difficult to say, precisely, where the asteroid would go. A collision with Earth was theoretically possible. "We weren't too worried," Chodas says, "but the odds were disturbing."

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This is typical, by the way, of newly-discovered asteroids. Step 1: An asteroid is discovered. Step 2: Uncertain orbits are calculated from spotty tracking data. Step 3: Possible Earth impacts are noted. Step 4: Astronomers watch the asteroid for a while, then realize that it's going to miss our planet.

Killer Asteroid! headlines generally appear between steps 3 and 4, but that'sanother story.

Astronomers knew 2004 MN4 would miss Earth when they found pictures of the asteroid taken, unwittingly, in March 2004, three months before its official discovery. The extra data ruled out a collision in 2029.

Instead, what we're going to have is an eye-popping close encounter:

On April 13, 2029, asteroid 2004 MN4 will fly past Earth only 18,600 miles (30,000 km) above the ground. For comparison, geosynchronous satellites orbit at 22,300 miles (36,000 km). "At closest approach, the asteroid will shine like a 3rd magnitude star, visible to the unaided eye from Africa, Europe and Asia--even through city lights," says Jon Giorgini of JPL. This is rare. "Close approaches by objects as large as 2004 MN4 are currently thought to occur at 1000-year intervals, on average."

Above: The trajectory (blue) of asteroid 2004 MN4 past Earth on April 13, 2029. Uncertainty in the asteroid's close-approach distance is represented by the short white bar. [More]

The asteroid's trajectory will bend approximately 28 degrees during the encounter, "a result of Earth's gravitational pull," explains Giorgini. What happens next is uncertain. Some newspapers have stated that the asteroid might swing around and hit Earth after all in 2035 or so, but Giorgini discounts that: "Our ability to 'see' where 2004 MN4 will go (by extrapolating its orbit) is so blurred out by the 2029 Earth encounter, it can't even be said for certain what side of the sun 2004 MN4 will be on in 2035. Talk of Earth encounters in 2035 is premature."

In January 2004, a team of astronomers led by Lance Benner of JPL pinged 2004 MN4 using the giant Arecibo radar in Puerto Rico. (Coincidentally, the Arecibo dish is about the same size as the asteroid.) Echoes revealed the asteroid's precise distance and velocity, "allowing us to calculate the details of the 2029 flyby," says Giorgini, who was a member of the team along with Benner, Mike Nolan (NAIC) and Steve Ostro (JPL).

More data are needed to forecast 2004 MN4's motion beyond 2029. "The next good opportunities are in 2013 and 2021," Giorgini says. The asteroid will be about 9 million miles (14 million km) from Earth, invisible to the naked eye, but close enough for radar studies. "If we get radar ranging in 2013, we should be able to predict the location of 2004 MN4 out to at least 2070."

Right: The Arecibo radar in Puerto Rico is coincidentally about the size of asteroid 2004 MN4. [More]

The closest encounter of all, Friday the 13th, 2029, will be a spectacular opportunity to explore this asteroid via radar. During this encounter, says Giorgini, "radar could detect the distortion of 2004 MN4's shape and spin as it passes through Earth's gravity field. How the asteroid changes (or not) would provide information about its internal structure and material composition." Beautifully-detailed surface maps are possible, too.

The view through an optical telescope won't be so impressive. The asteroid's maximum angular diameter is only 2 to 4 arcseconds, which means it will be a starlike point of light in all but the very largest telescopes.

But to the naked eye--wow! No one in recorded history has ever seen an asteroid in space so bright.

Friday the 13th might not be so bad after all.

See the latest news on Nibiru

NASA: No, Nibiru (Planet X) will not be destroying the world this month [VIDEO]

If you are planning on the Earth ending on December 21, NASA has some advice for you: Don’t.

The U.S. space agency took to the internet late last week in an attempt to dispel rumors surrounding a potentially catastrophic collision with Nibiru, also known as Planet X. Speaking in an online forum hosted by Google+, the space agency said rumors of an impending disaster were little more than unfounded conspiracy theories.

NASA scientists presented  the “Beyond 2012″ during the last week of November. The rumors stem from what some believe is the end of the Mayan calendar that occurs on December 21. The feature focused on a number of mythical scenarios, including a collision between Earth and Nibiru.

According to NASA, the dwarf planet — which does not exist — would be on display to the entire world.

“By now it would be the brightest object in the sky, after the sun and moon, and anybody could go out and see it,” said David Morrison of NASA’s Ames Research Center, referencing how the mythical planet would appear if it was on course to collide with Earth.

“Nibiru is ridiculous because it doesn’t exist — it never existed as anything other than a figment of the imagination by pseudo-scientists who don’t seem bothered by a complete lack of evidence,” astronomer Don Yeomans, manager of NASA’s Near-Earth Object program office at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California, told SPACE.com.

The latest attempt by NASA to dispel rumors related to the mythical planet comes just weeks after the space agency posted answers to a number of questions submitted by readers. The complete collection focused on the theory of impending collisions with Earth, including those involving Nibiru.

“Nibiru and other stories about wayward planets are an Internet hoax. There is no factual basis for these claims,” NASA said. “If Nibiru or Planet X were real and headed for an encounter with the Earth in 2012, astronomers would have been tracking it for at least the past decade, and it would be visible by now to the naked eye. Obviously, it does not exist. Eris is real, but it is a dwarf planet similar to Pluto that will remain in the outer solar system; the closest it can come to Earth is about 4 billion miles.”

“The Earth has always been subject to impacts by comets and asteroids, although big hits are very rare. The last big impact was 65 million years ago, and that led to the extinction of the dinosaurs,” the space agency added. “Today NASA astronomers are carrying out a survey called the Spaceguard Survey to find any large near-Earth asteroids long before they hit.”

The latest attempt by NASA is likely not to be the last. The agency has yet to announce any additional plans for dispelling rumors ahead of the December date, although one thing is for certain: we will get our answer later this month.

Nibiru: The Nonexistent Planet

Linked to the close of the Mayan calendar, a variety of rumors have spread regarding ways the world could end in 2012. One popular contender is Nibiru, a supposed planet that some claim will collide with Earth at the end of the year. But despite the buzz, there is no scientific evidence supporting the alleged planet's existence.

Nibiru has been linked to NASA by various bloggers, and is also sometimes referred to or confused with Planet X, another supposed world for which there is no evidence.

Because of the Nibiru NASA connection that’s been claimed, the space agency put out a statement to say there is no Nibiru or Planet X coming to destroy Earth in 2012. What follows below is the true science and history of these supposed rogue planets, with reference to a real object, Comet Elenin, that somehow got mixed up in the whole mess.

The origins of the Nibiru myth

The story began in 1976, when Zecharia Sitchin wrote "The Twelfth Planet," a book which used Stitchin's own unique translation of Sumerian cuneiform to identify a planet, Nibiru, orbiting the sun every 3,600 years. Several years later, Nancy Lieder, a self-described psychic, announced that the aliens she claimed to channel had warned her this planet would collide with Earth in 2003. After a collision-free year, the date was moved back to 2012, where it was linked to the close of the Mayan long-count period. 

When Comet Elenin appeared in 2011, many were concerned that it was the mysterious planet in disguise, despite the fact that planets and comets both appear different under a telescope (a comet has a gas atmosphere [coma] and a tail, while a planet does not). 

Evidence for Nibiru?But instead of slamming into the Earth, the comet strayed too close to the sun and broke into pieces. The leftover fragments continued on their path to the outer solar system for the next 12,000 years, still bits of comet and not a more cohesive planet.

Proponents of the fictitious planet note that, in 1984, a scientific paper was published in the Astrophysical Journal Letters which discussed several infrared sources with "no counterparts" that turned up in a survey of the sky. Such surveys are common in astronomy, and usually involve follow-ups that individually detail the more interesting sources. In the follow-up of the 1984 survey, most of the sources turned out to be distant galaxies. None were identified as planets. Both papers are available to the public.

A planet with an orbit so eccentric that it took 3,600 years to orbit the sun would create instabilities inside of the 4.5 billion year old solar system. After only a few trips, its gravity would have significantly disrupted the other planets, while feeling a responding push from those planets that would have changed its orbit significantly.

The easiest and most verifiable piece of evidence arguing against the existence of the theoretical planet can be performed by anyone - according to the information available, a planet with a 3,600 orbit that is due to impact Earth in 2012 should be available to the naked eye. Easily-performed calculations show that by April 2012, it would be brighter than the faintest stars viewed from a city, and almost as bright as Mars at its dimmest. This would make it visible to astronomers everywhere.

The most common rebuttal to this is the cry of conspiracy theory. However, there are hundreds of thousands of amateur astronomers around the world, each with their own telescope. On top of that, most of the thousands of professional astronomers are linked, not to the government, but to private universities.

David Morrison, the Senior Scientist of the NASA Astrobiology Institute, pointed out that "NASA and the government get most of their information from these outside astronomers, not the other way around."

Between the amateur and professional astronomers, there are plenty of people who would have noticed a new star in the sky.

Nothing to fear

Doomsday reports across the internet frequently incite fear, but it's interesting to note they are nothing new. People have been decrying the end of the world for hundreds of years, to no avail.

Rumors spread like wildfire on the internet, but the same technology can make it easier than ever to delve into the scientific evidence about such events.

Planet X Nibiru Nasa 2012 Doomsday

UPDATE: NASA scientists have reportedly confirmed that the planet Nibiru will collide with Earth on December 21st.

The Nibiru collision with Earth in 2012 has been predicted for a long time, but astrophysicists, cosmologists and astronomers around the world have now come to a consensus that Earth will indeed collide with the planet, which lies just outside Pluto.

Nibiru, in Babylonian Astronomy translates to “Point of Transition” or ”Planet of Crossing,”  especially of rivers, i.e. river crossings or ferry-boats, a term of the highest point of the ecliptic, i.e. the point of summer solstice, and its associated constellation. The establishment of the Nibiru point is described in tablet 5 of the Enuma Elish. Its cuneiform sign was often a cross, or various winged disc. The Sumerian culture was located in the fertile lands between the Euphrates and Tigris rivers, at the southern part of today’s Iraq.

As the highest point in the paths of the planets, Nibiru was considered the seat of the summus deus who pastures the stars like sheep, in Babylon identified with Marduk. This interpretation of Marduk as the ruler of the cosmos was identified as an early monotheist tendency in Babylonian religion by Alfred Jeremias.

Natural disasters are accelerating exponentially and astronomers believe that they are being caused by Nibiru coming closer and closer to Earth.

EARTH TO COLLIDE WITH NIBIRU ON DECEMBER 21, 2012!

Question (Q): Are there any threats to the Earth in 2012? Many Internet websites say the world will end in December 2012.
 Answer (A):The world will not end in 2012. Our planet has been getting along just fine for more than 4 billion years, and credible scientists worldwide know of no threat associated with 2012.


Q: What is the origin of the prediction that the world will end in 2012?
 A: The story started with claims that Nibiru, a supposed planet discovered by the Sumerians, is headed toward Earth. This catastrophe was initially predicted for May 2003, but when nothing happened the doomsday date was moved forward to December 2012 and linked to the end of one of the cycles in the ancient Mayan calendar at the winter solstice in 2012 -- hence the predicted doomsday date of December 21, 2012.


Q: Does the Mayan calendar end in December 2012?
 A: Just as the calendar you have on your kitchen wall does not cease to exist after December 31, the Mayan calendar does not cease to exist on December 21, 2012. This date is the end of the Mayan long-count period but then -- just as your calendar begins again on January 1 -- another long-count period begins for the Mayan calendar.


Q: Is NASA predicting a "total blackout" of Earth on Dec. 23 to Dec. 25?
 A: Absolutely not. Neither NASA nor any other scientific organization is predicting such a blackout. The false reports on this issue claim that some sort of "alignment of the Universe" will cause a blackout. There is no such alignment (see next question). Some versions of this rumor cite an emergency preparedness message from NASA Administrator Charles Bolden. This is simply a message encouraging people to be prepared for emergencies, recorded as part of a wider government preparedness campaign. It never mentions a blackout.
›Watch the Video


Q: Could planets align in a way that impacts Earth?
 A: There are no planetary alignments in the next few decades and even if these alignments were to occur, their effects on the Earth would be negligible. One major alignment occurred in 1962, for example, and two others happened during 1982 and 2000. Each December the Earth and sun align with the approximate center of the Milky Way Galaxy but that is an annual event of no consequence.
› More about alignment

"There apparently is a great deal of interest in celestial bodies, and their locations and trajectories at the end of the calendar year 2012. Now, I for one love a good book or movie as much as the next guy. But the stuff flying around through cyberspace, TV and the movies is not based on science. There is even a fake NASA news release out there..."
- Don Yeomans, NASA senior research scientist

Q: Is there a planet or brown dwarf called Nibiru or Planet X or Eris that is approaching the Earth and threatening our planet with widespread destruction?
 A: Nibiru and other stories about wayward planets are an Internet hoax. There is no factual basis for these claims. If Nibiru or Planet X were real and headed for an encounter with the Earth in 2012, astronomers would have been tracking it for at least the past decade, and it would be visible by now to the naked eye. Obviously, it does not exist. Eris is real, but it is a dwarf planet similar to Pluto that will remain in the outer solar system; the closest it can come to Earth is about 4 billion miles.


Q: What is the polar shift theory? Is it true that the Earth's crust does a 180-degree rotation around the core in a matter of days if not hours?
 A: A reversal in the rotation of Earth is impossible. There are slow movements of the continents (for example Antarctica was near the equator hundreds of millions of years ago), but that is irrelevant to claims of reversal of the rotational poles. However, many of the disaster websites pull a bait-and-switch to fool people. They claim a relationship between the rotation and the magnetic polarity of Earth, which does change irregularly, with a magnetic reversal taking place every 400,000 years on average. As far as we know, such a magnetic reversal doesn’t cause any harm to life on Earth. Scientists believe a magnetic reversal is very unlikely to happen in the next few millennia.
› More about polar shift


Q: Is the Earth in danger of being hit by a meteor in 2012?
 A: The Earth has always been subject to impacts by comets and asteroids, although big hits are very rare. The last big impact was 65 million years ago, and that led to the extinction of the dinosaurs. Today NASA astronomers are carrying out a survey called the Spaceguard Survey to find any large near-Earth asteroids long before they hit. We have already determined that there are no threatening asteroids as large as the one that killed the dinosaurs. All this work is done openly with the discoveries posted every day on the NASA Near-Earth Object Program Office website, so you can see for yourself that nothing is predicted to hit in 2012.


Q: How do NASA scientists feel about claims of the world ending in 2012?
 A: For any claims of disaster or dramatic changes in 2012, where is the science? Where is the evidence? There is none, and for all the fictional assertions, whether they are made in books, movies, documentaries or over the Internet, we cannot change that simple fact. There is no credible evidence for any of the assertions made in support of unusual events taking place in December 2012.
› Why you need not fear a supernova
› About super volcanoes


Q: Is there a danger from giant solar storms predicted for 2012?
 A: Solar activity has a regular cycle, with peaks approximately every 11 years. Near these activity peaks, solar flares can cause some interruption of satellite communications, although engineers are learning how to build electronics that are protected against most solar storms. But there is no special risk associated with 2012. The next solar maximum will occur in the 2012-2014 time frame and is predicted to be an average solar cycle, no different than previous cycles throughout history.

CURRENT GENERAL KNOWLEDGE: SEP 2012

ABBREVIATIONS
IDF: Infrastructure Debt Fund.
MAHLI: Mars Hand Lens Imager (camera)

AWARDS
Lal Bahadur Shastri Award, 2012
Tessy Thomas, the key defence scientist in the Agni series of missiles, has been conferred the award for her outstanding contribution for making India self-reliant in the field of missile technology. The award is given annually for excellence in public administration, academics and management. It carries a cash award of Rs 5 lakh, a plaque and a citation.

RESEARCH
Home cure for dengue
The juice of the humble papaya leaf has been seen to arrest the destruction of platelets that has been the cause for so many deaths due to dengue.  

Ayurveda  researchers have found that enzymes in the papaya leaf can fight a host of viral infections, not just dengue, and can help regenerate platelets and white blood cells. Scores of patients have benefited from the papaya leaf juice, say doctors.

Papaya has always been known to be good for the digestive system. Due to its rich vitamin and mineral content, it is a health freak’s favourite. But its dengue-fighting properties have only recently been discovered.

Chymopapin and papin-j enzymes in the papaya leaf—help revive platelet count, say experts.

The juice has to be prepared from fresh papaya leaves. De-vein the leaves and grind the green, pulpy part into a paste. You can also use a mixer. The paste is very bitter and you would probably have to mix it with fruit juice. 

Doctors recommend 20-25 ml (about four to five teaspoons), twice a day, for at least a week to get the best results.

SPACE RESEARCH
Williams creates Spacewalk record
Indian-American NASA astronaut Sunita Williams and her Japanese counterpart Akihiko Hoshide successfully restored power to the International Space Station on their second attempt on September 5, 2012. With this Spacewalk, Williams surpassed Peggy Whitson’s record for total cumulative spacewalk time by a female astronaut.

Whitson worked outside for 39 hours and 46 minutes over the course of six spacewalks. Williams has conducted six spacewalks for a total of 44 hours and 2 minutes.

ISRO’s 100th mission
The Indian space odyssey crossed a historic landmark on September 9, 2012, when a Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV-C21) put in orbit two foreign satellites. It marked the 100th space mission of the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) which started the journey in 1975 with the launch of its first satellite “Aryabhata.”

Among those who watched the majestic rocket lift off from the Satish Dhawan Space Centre in Sriharikota, 100km north of Chennai, was Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.

PSLV-C21 injected two satellites into orbit—the French SPOT-6 and the Japanese micro-satellite Proiteres. 

SPOT and Indian remote sensing satellites (launched earlier) are the two leading earth observation satellite series. SPOT 6 is the heaviest foreign satellite ever to have been launched by the ISRO, which has made launching of satellites as a significant business activity, earning precious foreign exchange to the country.

It was PSLV’s 21st consecutively successful flight. PSLV-C21 is India’s 38th satellite launch vehicle to lift off from Sriharikota. India has so far put in orbit 62 Indian satellites. The total adds up to 100. 

GSAT-10 launched
India’s advanced communication satellite GSAT-10 was successfully launched on September 29, 2012, on board Ariane-5 rocket, from Europe’s spaceport in French Guiana.

GSAT-10, with a design life of 15 years, is expected to be operational by November and will augment telecommunication, Direct-To-Home and radio navigation services.

At 3,400 kg at lift-off, GSAT-10 is the heaviest built by Bangalore-headquartered Indian Space Research Organisation. It was ISRO’s 101st space mission.

GSAT-10 is fitted with 30 transponders (12 Ku-band, 12 C-band and six Extended C-Band), which will provide vital augmentation to INSAT/GSAT transponder capacity. 

It also has a navigation payload—GAGAN (GPS aided Geo Augmented Navigation)—that would provide improved accuracy of GPS signals (of better than seven metres) to be used by Airports Authority of India for civil aviation requirements.

This is the second satellite in INSAT/GSAT constellation with GAGAN payload afterGSAT-8, launched in May 2011.