Thursday, March 28, 2013

2036 asteroid collision ‘effectively ruled out’



2036 asteroid collision ‘effectively ruled out’


The possibility that a 325-metre-wide asteroid will impact Earth in 2036 has been “effectively ruled out” based on new data leading up to yesterday’s flyby, NASA scientists announced.

Asteroid Apophis
Asteroid Apophis was discovered on 19 June 2004. Credit: UH/IA
SYDNEY: The possibility that a 325-metre-wide asteroid will impact Earth in 2036 has been “effectively ruled out” based on new data leading up to yesterday’s flyby, NASA scientists announced.
When the asteroid, named Apophis after a demon from Egyptian mythology, was discovered in 2004, scientists estimated a 2.7% chance of impact in 2029 – the highest ever seen for an asteroid.
While the 2029 impact was soon ruled out, a small chance (one in 250,000) remained for a collision with Apophis in 2036 – until yesterday.
Impact odds less than one in a million
“The impact odds as they stand now are less than one in a million, which makes us comfortable saying we can effectively rule out an Earth impact in 2036,” said Don Yeomans, manager of NASA’s Near-Earth Object Program Office, in a statement.
“Our interest in asteroid Apophis will essentially be for its scientific interest for the foreseeable future,” he said.
The scientists used updated information obtained by NASA telescopes in 2011 and 2012, as well as new data from the time leading up to Apophis’ distant Earth flyby yesterday.
Next month’s close shave
When asteroid Apophis does pass Earth again in 2029, it will be the closest flyby of an asteroid of its size, at 31,300 kilometres (19,400 miles) above Earth’s surface.
However much sooner, on February 15 this year, another smaller (45 metre-wide) asteroid, called 2012 DA14, will also pass Earth at less than 30,000 km – closer than the orbit of our geostationary satellites. 2012 DA14 will not be visible to the naked eye.
More information:
NASA Asteroid Watch

The Doomsday asteroid Apophis that could hit Earth in 2036 as it whizzed past us


Pictured: The 'Doomsday' asteroid Apophis that could hit Earth in 2036 as it whizzed past us (but don't worry it was still nine million miles away)

  • 1000 foot wide asteroid will brush past the Earth at a distance of 30,000km
  • Scientists claim little chance of it hitting us - but scientists warn of 'tiny but real' likelihood it may in 2036
  • Name inspired by two of the asteroid's co-discoverers favorite science fiction villain

The European Space Agency's orbiting telescope has captured striking new images of the huge 'Doomsday' asteroid Apophis that could smash into Earth in 2036 - revealing it is larger than previously thought.
Long billed as a potential cause of an Extinction Level Event (ELE) for humanity, today ESA officials announced that its Herschel Space Observatory discovered that the asteroid is 1,066 feet wide, 20 percent larger than the previous estimate of 885 feet.
Whizzing past Earth at the relatively close distance of nine million miles tonight, Apophis is being closely tracked because of a 2004 study that predicted the rock has a 2.7 percent chance of hitting Earth in April 2029, which was later revised to 2036.

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ESAs Herschel Space Observatory captured asteroid Apophis in its field of view during the approach to Earth on January, 5-6, 2013. This image shows the asteroid in Herschels three PACS wavelengths: 70, 100 and 160 microns
ESAs Herschel Space Observatory captured asteroid Apophis in its field of view during the approach to Earth on January, 5-6, 2013. This image shows the asteroid in Herschels three PACS wavelengths: 70, 100 and 160 microns
'The 20 percent increase in diameter … translates into a 75 percent increase in our estimates of the asteroid's volume or mass,' study leader Thomas Müller of the Max Planck Institute for Extraterrestrial Physics in Garching, Germany, said in a statement.
In addition to the latest findings two free webcasts will stream live views of the asteroid as it passes, filmed from telescopes in Italy and the Canary Islands.
The video streams from Slooh Space Telescope and Virtual Telescope Project will show Apophis as a moving light streaking across the sky - although scientists have said that sadly the large space rock is too small to be seen through home telescopes.
 
'Alone among all these near-Earth asteroids that have passed our way in recent years, Apophis has generated the most concern worldwide because of its extremely close approach in 2029 and [chances of a] potential impact, albeit small, in 2036,' said Slooh president Patrick Paolucci.
Indeed, while scientists have ruled out any possibility of a cataclysmic collision - there remains a very real chance of the asteroid Apophis smashing into Earth in 2036.
'Apophis has been one of those celestial bodies that has captured the public's interest since it was discovered in 2004,' said Steve Chesley at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California.
Jan. 8, 2013: At about 36 hours from the minimum distance (9.3 million miles from Earth), potentially hazardous asteroid Apophis was imaged again with the Virtual Telescope
Jan. 8, 2013: At about 36 hours from the minimum distance (9.3 million miles from Earth), potentially hazardous asteroid Apophis was imaged again with the Virtual Telescope
'Updated computational techniques and newly available data indicate the probability of an Earth encounter on April 13, 2036, for Apophis has dropped from one-in-45,000 to about four-in-a million.'
The science of predicting asteroid orbits is based on a physical model of the solar system which includes the gravitational influence of the sun, moon, other planets and the three largest asteroids. 

The potential planet killer named after a science fiction villain

  • One year after its discovery, the asteroid was given the idenitfication number of 99942 in 2005.
  • This made it eligible to be be named and on July 19th 2005, the asteroid was called 'Apophis'.
  • Apophis is the Greek name for the the enemy of the Ancient Egyptian sun god Ra.
  • He is the Uncreator, and is characterised as an evil serpent who dwells in eternal darkness and tries to consume Ra during his nightly passage.
  • Roy A. Tucker, David J. Tholen, two of the asteroids co-discoverers are also fans of the science fiction television series Stargate SG-1.
  • A prominent villain in that show is called Apophis, who in the mythology of that particular series, gave rise to the myth of the Egyptian god.
NASA detects and tracks asteroids and comets passing close to Earth using both ground and space-based telescopes. 
The Near Earth-Object Observations Program, commonly called 'Spaceguard,' discovers these objects, characterizes a subset of them and plots their orbits to determine if any could be potentially hazardous to our planet.
This year Apophis, named after an Egyptian mythological demon, will not get closer than around nine million miles.
Doomsday Asteroid? An artist's rendering of the asteroid Apophis as created by the European Space Agency
Doomsday Asteroid? An artist's rendering of the asteroid Apophis as created by the European Space Agency
Experts say the impact if Apophis struck the Earth would generate a blast equivalent to more than 500 megatons of TNT
Experts say the impact if Apophis struck the Earth would generate a blast equivalent to more than 500 megatons of TNT
Scientists will use the encounter to improve their estimate of just how dangerous the space rock really is to life on Earth.
In 2029, Apophis is expected to come uncomfortably close, brushing past the Earth at a distance of just 30,000 kilometres. That will put the asteroid inside the orbit of communication satellites.
Current models predict a tiny but real likelihood of Apophis colliding with the Earth in 2036.
When the asteroid was discovered in 2004 scientists calculated a one-in-45 chance of an impact in 2029.
Improved predictions later lifted the threat.
The asteroid's latest near approach will occur at midnight UK time tomorrow.
Members of the public can view the event online via the Slooh web-based sky-watching service, which collects images from observatories around the world.
'We are excited to cover this asteroid live for the general public.'
Scientists at the American space agency Nasa have calculated that if Apophis struck the Earth it would generate a blast equivalent to more than 500 megatons of TNT.
In comparison, the most powerful hydrogen bomb ever detonated, the Soviet Tsar Bomba, released 57 megatons.

 VIDEO   The 'Doomsday' huge asteroid Apophis passes by Earth